In a latest tweet, Luke Mikic, a famend podcaster and YouTuber, highlighted the distinct variations between the upcoming 2025 Bitcoin bull market and its predecessors in 2017 and 2021. Drawing from his insights and the information out there, right here’s a deep dive into the three causes that set the 2025 bull market aside:
1. The Hash Price Race: Nation States Enter the Fray
“The Bitcoin hash fee goes completely parabolic, smashing via 400TH/s & one other ATH!” Mikic exclaimed. Certainly, the Bitcoin community hash fee just lately achieved a record-breaking 414 EH/s, marking an 80% surge during the last 12 months. This development is especially astonishing given the vitality challenges in Texas and the escalating international electrical energy prices.
Mikic factors out, “That is the first bear market the place the hash fee is hitting new ATHs… Is that this time completely different?” The reply appears to be a powerful sure. Nation states are actually publicly (and perhaps privately) mining Bitcoin.
El Salvador and Bhutan had been the pioneers, and just lately, Oman joined the league. Oman’s strategic transfer to mine Bitcoin goals to diversify its financial system from oil dependence and bolster renewable vitality initiatives, together with flare gasoline mitigation. Remarkably, it’s but unknown if no more nations are already mining BTC in stealth mode with out official announcement.
2. Provide Suffocation
Traditionally, bear markets have seen an inflow of Bitcoin on exchanges. Nonetheless, the present situation paints a unique image. Mikic notes, “In each prior Bitcoin bear market we’ve seen a rise within the variety of cash on exchanges. 2015 – Improve of 800K cash, 2018- Improve of 900K cash, 2022- DECREASE of 1 million since March 2020.”
In keeping with data from Santiment, a mere 5.8% of Bitcoin is now on exchanges, the bottom since December 17, 2017. Moreover, Bitcoin’s Change Depositing Transactions (SMA 7-day) plummeted to a 5-year low, reaching 30,798 BTC per day, a determine harking back to December 11, 2016. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s takeaway? “Individuals don’t need to promote BTC. The provision deficit will proceed to stimulate development.”
3. The Nice Wall Road Accumulation
The BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF software stands as a watershed second in Bitcoin’s journey in the direction of mainstream adoption. Mikic emphasizes, “The Blackrock Bitcoin ETF software will likely be remembered as a pivotal second for Bitcoin’s future mainstream adoption. TRILLIONS of capital has now been given the inexperienced mild to put money into Bitcoin.”
Because the world’s largest asset supervisor, BlackRock’s entry may bestow unparalleled legitimacy upon the Bitcoin market. BlackRock will most likely promote Bitcoin and its new product in a giant approach, bringing new retail and institutional traders into BTC.
Trying on the present value stagnation in Bitcoin, it ought to be famous that there aren’t any new inflows in the intervening time, as evidenced by the lowering quantity of stablecoins within the ecosystem. Within the midst of the longest of all bear markets, there may be merely no cause for retailers to get again in in the intervening time. Nonetheless, an occasion just like the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF can change this abruptly and be the set off for a Bitcoin bull run (even earlier than halving).
In conclusion, the 2025 Bitcoin bull market is poised to be not like some other. With nation states becoming a member of the mining race, a palpable provide shock, and Wall Road giants like BlackRock exhibiting curiosity, Mikic’s last phrases resonate strongly: “Takeaway: NOBODY is bullish sufficient.”
At press time, BTC traded at $26,058.
Featured picture from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
