An analyst who continues to construct a following together with his long-term Bitcoin calls is forecasting the timeline for a BTC post-halving bull run.
Pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital tells his 353,800 followers on the social media platform X that he’s trying on the 2017 and 2020 bull market cycles to see when Bitcoin may prime out after its halving occasion.
The halving, which slashes BTC miners’ reward in half, is historically seen as a bullish catalyst because it considerably reduces Bitcoin’s newly issued provide.
Utilizing historic information, Rekt Capital says Bitcoin may witness an 18-month-long bull market after the April 2024 halving.
“Over the previous a number of years, it has taken Bitcoin 518-546 days to prime out after its halving. If historical past repeats, Bitcoin may prime in both mid-September 2025 or mid-October 2025.”
Whereas Rekt Capital is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, he warns that BTC may collapse within the months resulting in the halving.
“Bitcoin is 210 days away from its halving.
At this level within the cycle in 2019, the worth fashioned a decrease excessive (purple).
After doing so, it took Bitcoin 147 days to crash -62% within the macro increased low.
What would that appear to be if historical past repeats on this cycle?
If Bitcoin kinds a decrease excessive quickly (purple), it might take 147 days for BTC to crash -27% into its macro increased low (blue circle).
That might imply Bitcoin may revisit its macro increased low in mid-February 2024.
In mid-February 2024, the macro increased low would signify the worth level of round ~$20,300.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is price $26,258. A transfer towards Rekt Capital’s draw back goal suggests an over 22% devaluation for BTC.
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